CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z MON 23/05 - 06Z TUE 24/05 2005
ISSUED: 22/05 22:42Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

General thunderstorms are forecast across parts of Scandinavia, central Europe, northern Italy, the Balkans parts of eastern Europe and the Pyrenees.

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06 UTC...a westsouthwesterly flow is present over western Europe upstream of a longwave ridge over eastern Europe. Main features are a shortwave trough from the British Isles to southwestern France that moves eastward and and area warm advection over the northeastern Balkans, the western Ukraine and Belarus.

DISCUSSION

...northeastern Romania, Moldova, western Ukraine...
Warm advection is expected over the area advecting an elevated mixed layer northward. GFS and NMM allow around or slightly above 1000 J/kg CAPE to form. Covnective initiation is forecast during late afternoon and a couple of strong storms may result. Forecast deep-layer shear of around 15 m/s suggests that storms may become well-organised into multicell complexes that may produce large hail and a few severe gusts. Overall severe threat seems to low to issue a categorizal risk.

...eastern Germany, western Poland...
Forcing for upward vertical motion across a frontal zone is expected to increase over the area, while diurnal heating will likely help on the order of 500-1000 J/kg to be created over extreme eastern germany and western parts of Poland, development of scattered storms is expected to commence during the early afternoon. The storms will likely cluster rapidly into linear modes and some large hail and strong winds may occur with this activity. The threat of any severe weather seem too low to warrant a risk category at the moment, but an update may be issued tomorrow if necessary.

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